AGM Alts Weekly | 1.18.26: Narrative versus nuance
AGM Alts Weekly #138: Making private markets more public, every week.
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For too long, private equity funds have relied on manual processes — spreadsheets, scattered documents, disjointed data — to track complex investment and ownership structures. It’s slow, error-prone, and not scalable. And when regulators, investors, or auditors come knocking, it’s a fire drill every time.
At DealsPlus, we help private equity funds digitise investment and ownership structures, eliminating data silos. Our software helps power key workflows such as: quarterly reporting, audits, compliance, and exits.
Good morning from Washington, D.C.
Narratives can shape opinions and perspectives.
Those who have shaped narratives have often found ways to capture attention. It’s the medium that has changed. The ability to capture attention, however, has been accelerated by the speed at which information (and memes) are amplified on social media.
Some recent narratives about private equity have been rather pessimistic. A December 2025 New York Times article titled “Investors Warn of ‘Rot in Private Equity’ as Funds Strike Circular Deals” discussed the rise in continuation vehicles, viewing this growing trend as a negative signal for an industry that has struggled to distribute capital back to investors. That’s but one of a number of articles that have portrayed private equity in a negative light as of late.
Private equity is far from perfect. Some might view the increasing use of continuation vehicles as a sign that private equity funds are struggling to exit companies and return capital to investors. And there is merit to those arguments.
But there’s also another narrative with continuation vehicles. A Q2 2025 study by Evercore and HEC School of Management in Paris found that top-performing single and multi-asset continuation vehicles actually demonstrated stronger return profiles than buyout funds when compared to top-quartile funds, as the below chart from Secondaries Investor illustrates.
Zooming out from continuation vehicles to look at industry trends shaping private equity paints a similar picture of the importance of evaluating nuance when it comes to the data.
Yes, the past few years have seen lower distributions back to LPs from buyout funds, according to the Bain & Company 2025 Global Private Equity Report.
A chart from Bain & Company’s report illustrates that while AUM has grown rather markedly from 2014-2024, distributions as a percentage of net asset value have experienced a steep decline in recent years.
A drying up of distributions has come at a time when dry powder has increased. As Bain’s chart below highlights, aging dry powder has continued to accumulate as firms have raised capital and struggled to return capital to investors.
So, to some, it would seem that the narrative of private equity might be negative, particularly at a time when public markets, largely driven by Mag 7 performance, has generated returns for investors.
That’s what made a January 2026 report published this past week by Boston Consulting Group so interesting.
Narrative versus nuance
BCG’s report, “Private Equity’s Advantage Is Shifting, Not Shrinking,” noted an intriguing subtlety about the industry.
BCG wrote: “… despite the skepticism, the case for private equity remains strong, and may even be getting stronger.”
It appears that investors will just have to know where to look to find value.
BCG posited that “it’s actually getting easier to allocate to high-performing managers.”
BCG’s research finds that repeat top-quartile performance was more prevalent in 2013-2018 vintage years than in 2007-2012 vintage years:
Between 2007 and 2012, managers with a top-quartile fund had only about a one-in-three chance of repeating that performance and a 60% chance of staying in the top half, making it difficult to distinguish consistent skill from luck. For vintages between 2013 and 2018, those odds rose to roughly 45% and 80%, respectively. The increase suggests that genuine operating capability is now more visible, giving allocators a firmer basis for manager selection.
But allocating to high-performing managers might be easier said than done.
Successfully allocating to high-performing managers requires LPs to possess two distinct but important features: one, the ability to assess the likelihood of persistence in performance of those top-performing managers, and two, access to top-performing managers.
An allocator may possess the first ability (diligence skill), but unless they have the access, they may struggle to achieve performance in private equity.
Missing out on the right funds can be a costly endeavor for LPs.
Over a 19 year period from 2003-2022, top-quartile private equity funds outperformed bottom-quartile peers by roughly 13% in annual IRR (20.7% versus 7.5%).
Manager selection matters
This data underscores just how critical manager selection is to an LP’s success when investing in private equity.
Data from a December 2025 KKR insights paper supports these assertions.
Not only does Buyout have a wide spread between first and third quartile (and median and third quartile) returns, but it also has a much wider interquartile dispersion than other asset classes when compared to US Fixed Income, US Equities, and All Global Equities.
Not missing out on vintages matters too
Picking right matters, but so too does not missing out on vintages.
One might think that being selective about which vintages might perform better or worse could lead to better outcomes. But BCG’s report highlights that attempting to time the private equity market by skipping vintages does not necessarily drive better outcomes. As the below chart illustrates, an investor who skipped the three worst vintage years in private equity would generate a gain of just 0.8% compared to an investor who continually allocated to private equity vintages.
This point is punctuated by the current state of both public and private markets. BCG posits that reducing private equity exposure now would in essence trade out lower-multiple private businesses in exchange for more exposure to higher-multiple public mega-caps.
Further, skipping 2025 and 2026 private equity vintages would only result in investors having more exposure to weaker (and likely higher valuation periods of 2021 and 2022 private equity vintages), removing time diversification and concentrating exposure (and risk) in much less attractive entry years.
Returns become even more protracted when investors continually allocate to top quartile managers over the median managers over the past 20 years. BCG finds that returns when allocating to the top-quartile private equity managers generated 20.7% IRR, compared with 13.7% IRR annually for the median managers.
KKR’s recent report on private equity highlights another interesting feature of allocation decisions that can be made in the current private equity market that ties into the aforementioned point about not missing out on private equity vintages.
The advent of evergreen funds means that investors can now enable allocators to have an “operationally easy and efficient way to achieve diversified, stable, continuously compounding private equity exposure.” It also means that investors can stay invested across vintages.
KKR posits that combining both evergreen and drawdown structures in a private equity allocation strategy could produce higher compounded returns over time, as the below charts illustrate.
Manager dispersion with drawdowns and evergreens alike
Manager selection matters irrespective of the vehicle, as Clearstead Chief Investment Officer Aneet Deshpande shared in a post on LinkedIn a few weeks ago.
Marked dispersion in returns is not just limited to drawdown private equity vehicles. Dispersion between top-performing and poor-performing managers in private equity evergreens is also prevalent and protracted, as the above chart illustrates.
In theory, evergreens should mean more access to private markets for more investors. And, broadly speaking, so long as evergreens are run and managed in a responsible way and investors choose the right managers and evergreen structures, that should be a net positive for investors looking to allocate and access private equity.
But the nuance of the aforementioned data on manager selection, and the focus on picking and accessing the top-performing private equity managers, gives rise to an interesting dilemma as private markets, and private equity in particular, continue to grow.
Evergreen questions
As evergreen private equity vehicles grow in size and scale, will returns start to suffer?
How private equity firms, and particularly those with evergreen offerings, deal with the question of persistence in performance as more investors look to access private equity could be one of the key topics that decides the future of the industry.
These questions bring about another set of questions that are critical for investors to answer as they evaluate evergreen private equity allocations.
KKR recently published an instructional insights paper in January 2026 on diligence questions that LPs should ask about evergreen funds.
The punchline? Not all evergreen funds are created equal. The evergreen fund structure and the capabilities and features (or missing components) of a private equity firm’s platform are crucially important in determining a firm’s ability to run an evergreen private equity strategy.
Questions to ask of evergreen managers
KKR highlights a number of key questions that allocators can ask of evergreen private equity managers (a few of those questions are dissected below):
➡️ Does the manager have a strong track record in the strategy in the evergreen product, or is this something new for the manager?
“Are the investments included in the evergreen vehicle consistent with the manager’s institutional strategies?” KKR’s paper asks.
Different managers may choose different structures and strategies based on their respective capabilities and resources. And there are crucial considerations for LPs. Investors who choose a single-manager evergreen strategy are foregoing diversification across manager, geography, and sector. But single-manager strategies do enable investors to have direct exposure to a manager that takes controlling positions in investments, which put that private equity firm in the driver’s seat to effectuate exit outcomes.
➡️ “Does [the] evergreen private equity strategy have robust, consistent, and priority deal flow?” KKR’s paper asks.
This is perhaps one of the most important questions an LP can ask in its diligence of evergreen funds.
A single-manager evergreen strategy must have the size, scale, and current co-investment capacity within the broader investment platform to be able to access enough high-quality investments from the firm’s sourcing engine and gain enough capacity in each deal in its evergreen fund (alongside its drawdown funds) to invest a meaningful enough amount of capital to drive superior portfolio construction within the evergreen fund.
This question will only become more important as an investment firm scales its evergreen fund size and takes in more capital. How many investment firms have the sourcing engine and investment platform required to drive the right outcome for its evergreen strategy?
Words matter
There’s another nuance as it relates to private equity funds.
What exactly are allocators buying when they are investing in private equity funds?
Words matter, as I wrote in the 9.22.24 AGM Alts Weekly. Definitions matter. What we say matters. The words we use matter.
What we call things impacts how we think about things.
This is certainly true as it relates to private equity and how allocators might approach investing in private equity.
Permira’s Executive Chairman Kurt Bjorklund shared his definition of private equity on a recent podcast, Merryn Talks Money podcast, with Bloomberg’s Merryn Somerset Webb. His definition of private equity can be instructive for those looking to understand not just the “how” of private equity, but the “why” behind allocating to private equity.
At around 4:40 in the podcast, Kurt said, “private equity is a governance model with a very significant competitive advantage compared to, in my opinion, … in many cases, the public governance model. And that advantaged governance model, when applied properly and in the right situations, [leads] to alpha that is undeniable over time.”
Kurt goes on to define the governance model of private equity, saying that in his view, “private equity is control buyout governance. A private equity GP does great asset selection … then the [private equity firm] sets out to transform the business strategically, tactically, operationally, organizationally over the next five years. The thing that really matters is that you have enough time to drive through long-term evolution in the businesses … there’s a sense of patience and, at the same time, urgency [for] all the stakeholders. The third element is strong alignment [amongst] the ownership team, the private equity GP, and the investors.”
Kurt then unpacks a nuance within private equity. He notes that taking small stakes in companies is different from control buyout private equity, which means that allocators are taking a different type of risk when investing in funds that take stakes in private companies but lack the control of those companies to drive the exit outcomes.
Nuance matters
This nuance, in Kurt’s view, is critically important as it relates to private equity. This nuance is also crucial to understand when viewed through the prism of what allocators are looking to achieve when investing in private markets.
Private markets is going through a period in which more choice is coming to more investors in private markets. There are more funds, more products, and more structures. That choice isn’t necessarily a bad thing for allocators. And allocators may have different views about what they are looking to achieve in their relationships with private equity managers. After all, where one stands often depends on where they sit.
What it does mean is that allocators must know what they are buying and why they are buying it. And that’s why nuance matters more than ever when it comes to private markets.
AGM Index
AGM has created an Index to track the leading publicly traded alternative asset managers.
Some of the industry’s largest alternative asset managers are publicly traded — and their net inflows can serve as a window into how private markets are being perceived by investors and allocators who are allocating capital into alternative investments.
Note: AUM figures are based on fee-paying AUM where applicable.
Who is hiring?
In order for alts to continue to go mainstream, we need the best talent to go into the space. Here are some openings at private markets firms. If you’d like to connect with any of these teams, let me know, and I’m happy to facilitate an introduction if appropriate. If you’re a company or fund in private markets, feel free to reach out to share a job description you’d like to be listed here to highlight for the Alt Goes Mainstream community.
🔍 Blackstone (Alternative asset manager) - Blackstone Private Wealth - Product Specialist, Vice President (Real Assets). Click here to learn more.
🔍 KKR (Alternative asset manager) - Head of AI Product Management. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Apollo Global Management (Alternative asset manager) - Market Intelligence Director. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ares (Alternative asset manager) - Vice President, Product Management & Client Services, Wealth Management Solutions, APAC. Click here to learn more.
🔍 EQT Group (Alternative asset manager) - Head of Social Media. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Blue Owl (Alternative asset manager) - Marketing Content Strategist, Principal. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Franklin Templeton (Asset manager) - Portfolio Manager, Private Markets. Click here to learn more.
🔍 iCapital (Private markets infrastructure investment platform) - Deputy Chief Operating Officer, Canada - Senior Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Alternative asset manager) - Asset & Wealth Management, Wealth Product Design, Designer, Vice President - New York. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Partners Group (Alternative asset manager) - Investment Leader, Private Equity, Services vertical. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ultimus Fund Solutions (Fund administrator) - SVP, Business Development. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Krilogy (Wealth manager) - Senior Wealth Advisor. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Dynasty Financial Partners (Wealth management platform) - Senior Product Manager - Wealth Technology. Click here to learn more.
🔍 MSCI (Data services) - Content Writer - Private Assets. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Upper 90 (Alternative asset manager) - Investor Relations Analyst. Click here to learn more.
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