AGM Alts Weekly | 12.7.25: Notions of risk
AGM Alts Weekly #132: Making private markets more public, every week.
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Good morning from Washington, D.C.
In April 2024, Norges Bank Investment Management, the $2T Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, convened investment leaders in Oslo to share perspectives on “how to become a better investor.”
One of those investment leaders was Oaktree Co-Chairman and Co-Founder Howard Marks.
In his talk, Howard said he “believes that an organization has to have a creed, a religion. The things it believes in, the things it doesn’t believe in. The things it will do, the things it won’t do because it doesn’t trust them. And, you have to stick to it. Again, it has to be conscious and intentional.”
He also asked: What do you believe in? What core values will guide the organization?
A few weeks ago, I asked Oaktree Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit Armen Panossian if there was a perspective or saying from Howard’s memos that embodies or guides how Oaktree approaches investing as a firm.
Armen distilled lessons from the memos of Marks into a few key lessons:
“Patience”: He noted that Howard doesn’t usually make big bold market calls, but when he does, he’s been right (as Howard outlined in his “Taking the Temperature” memo). Armen’s takeaway is that it pays to be patient — and to “look for good reasons to underpin your thinking about whether to lean into or away from the market.”
“The Power of the Coupon”: Armen asserted that “you get paid to wait in credit.” He said that going 100% into cash might not be the most prudent decision because an investor might miss out on three to four years of coupon payments in a credit investment, noting that “being early is sometimes indistinguishable from being wrong.”
“Perception of Market Psychology”: Armen also referenced Howard’s thinking about market psychology and the market pendulum of euphoria (greed) and depression (fear) that Howard has discussed in his memos. Armen noted how important it is to zoom out from the weeds of underwriting an individual deal or credit and how Howard helps them think about the bigger picture.
I then asked Armen a follow-up question, asking him to share a title he would use for a memo if he were to write one on private credit.
Armen referenced something that Howard said in his talk at the Norges Bank Investment Management Investment Conference about the “things that [a firm] won’t do.”
Armen said something profound: “You don’t have to reach for risk to generate the right return.”
Armen’s comments made my mind turn about the concept of risk.
The concept of risk in investing, particularly as the wealth channel begins to adopt private markets, has been a major topic of conversation for both GPs and LPs as of late.
I’ve written about risk in the past, as I did in the 12.1.24 AGM Alts Weekly , discussing Howard’s memo “Ruminating on Asset Allocation.”
The goal of investing? To achieve “the best relationship between return and risk,” according to Howard.
Different clients, different risks
Here, I want to unpack another aspect of risk: how risk might differ by client or investor.
The lens through which one investor might view risk could be vastly different from how another investor sees risk, whether it be due to their mandate, their philosophy, or fund structure.
Is an investment in an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 safe or risky?
This question can then lead to a number of more nuanced questions about the notion of risk.
Over what time horizon?
TCI’s Chris Hohn, possibly one of the best public markets investors of our time (on average, performing 9% above the market over a period of 21 years), addressed the concept of time horizon in his talk at the 2025 Norges Bank Investment Management Investment Conference.
Hohn noted that risk might depend on time horizon, whether an investor is allocating to public markets or private markets:
“And then the third component I would say is long-termism. You can find a great company, but if your time horizon is very short … the vagaries of what Keynes’ called the voting machine — he said, “in the short term the market is a voting machine and only in the long term is it a weighing machine.” And going back to Warren Buffett, he was asked was Coca-Cola a risky investment when he first made it. And he said, “it depends on the time horizon.” Over one year, one month, very risky. He couldn’t sell where the price would trade at. It doesn’t necessarily reflect fundamentals in a short- or even medium-term. And so I do think time horizon is a critical thing. And even intelligent investors are unable or unwilling to have a long-term horizon.”
Concentration can be a driver of returns, as Hohn notes, but it can also pose a risk to investors.
How diversified is an investment in the S&P 500?
Are all 500 companies driving the returns of the S&P, or is a subset of companies accounting for the majority of the returns, and is the index heavily concentrated in those companies?
A chart from Apollo’s August 2025 Investor presentation highlights that the S&P 500 might in fact be highly concentrated.
At the time of the presentation, 10 companies comprised 55% of the S&P 500. And, the S&P 500 represented 85% of total equity market capitalization.
So, are investors diversified if they are exposed to the S&P?
Now, some investors may view concentration as a feature rather than a bug and prefer the risk of allocating to the S&P over the opportunity cost of allocating capital elsewhere if they believe that they can still generate the returns to meet their required investment objectives.
As of early December, investors would have certainly been paid for their exposure to the S&P in 2025. But how would they have felt about the risk?
How much liquidity is safe? How much illiquidity is risky?
Apollo CEO Marc Rowan shared at the 2024 Norges Bank Investment Management Investment Conference that a re-architecting of risk might be required in a new world order of investing.
Marc challenged us to think about the current world of investing: With the universe of public companies shrinking, an increasingly concentrated public market for investors, and a secular trend of de-banking, what if public is no longer as safe as it once was? “What if private is both safe and risky and public is both safe and risky,” he asked.
Risk, concentration, correlation, and liquidity take on different meanings when thinking about the characteristics of today’s markets. Further, why shouldn’t the type of capital that’s required to fund certain markets or projects match the illiquidity profiles that investors have? Marc referenced the energy transition, climate change, and infrastructure as projects and markets that require long-term horizons on capital invested. Why would it make sense for those markets to be funded on a daily liquid basis? The same goes for retirement accounts. If investors are not likely to need liquidity in those investment products until retirement, why wouldn’t it make sense for those investment products to be invested into private markets?
A December 2025 Investment Insights paper from KKR’s Alisa Amarosa Wood and Paula Campbell Roberts provides some data behind the impact on returns per unit of risk for a portfolio that includes both traditional and private equity assets relative to a portfolio’s efficient frontier that only includes traditional assets.
Apollo’s Rowan also referenced the nuance of liquidity with public and private credit in a Bloomberg Opinion piece this week:
“Myth No. 3: Private credit is not tradable. In fact, Apollo alone traded $6 billion of investment-grade private credit year to date. And for the State Street ETF (an ETF of investment-grade private and public credit that can purchase private credit from Apollo), there’s a price quote every day on every credit.”
A November 2025 presentation from Apollo on its Retirement Services business underscores the notion and power of perception in how investors might view risk.
Is public liquid and private illiquid? Is public safe and private risky?
Oaktree’s Marks provides the investing world with another dimension of how to view risk.
In his September 2023 Memo, “Fewer Losers, or More Winners?” Marks discussed the primacy of risk control over risk avoidance.
In his memo, Marks said:
“Understanding the distinction between risk control and risk avoidance is truly essential for investors. Risk avoidance basically consists of not doing anything where the outcome is uncertain and could be negative. And yet, at its heart, investing consists of bearing uncertainty in the pursuit of attractive returns. For this reason, risk avoidance usually equates to return avoidance. You can avoid risk by buying Treasury bills or putting your money into government-insured deposits, but there’s a reason why the returns on these are generally the lowest available in the investment world. Why should you be well paid for parting with your money for a while if you’re sure to get it back?
Risk control, on the other hand, consists of declining to take risks that (a) exceed the quantum of risk you want to live with and/or (b) you wouldn’t be well rewarded for bearing.”
Marks then goes on to list what he calls “the intelligent bearing of risk for profit.”
The point is simple: These functions can both be performed in an intelligent, risk-controlled way. For that to be the case, the risk has to be:
risk you’re aware of,
risk you can analyze,
risk you can diversify, and
risk you’re well paid to assume.
Risks like this needn’t be avoided. If you have real insight, such risks can be borne prudently and profitably.
The essence of Marks’ writings across a number of memos about risk aims to convey that portfolio construction should be about achieving the right mix of the risk / return continuum based on one’s level of comfort with the risk they are taking.
More or less risk? More or less decisions?
That right mix is wholly dependent on an investor’s risk tolerance and their preference for risk relative to return. This decision is a deeply personal one, which brings us to the importance of customization and personalization in private markets.
The wealth management community is faced with a challenge here: every client’s level of risk is different. Every advisor and client’s risk tolerance is distinctive.
How does one allocate to private markets when everyone has differing investing goals, which might result in a different view on risk and return?
This endeavor becomes even more difficult when wealth managers and clients are trying to balance customization with scale.
How can allocators who generally want to make less decisions, not more, navigate an investment landscape that has grown in terms of choice, product structure, and asset class availability?
There is no one right answer here. The answer to this question is, in some respects, relative. It lies in an allocator’s belief and tolerance for risk — and how an investor views opportunity cost.
But Armen’s point should remain evergreen: no investor should “have to reach for risk to generate the right return.”
AGM Index
AGM has created an Index to track the leading publicly traded alternative asset managers.
Some of the industry’s largest alternative asset managers are publicly traded — and their net inflows can serve as a window into how private markets are being perceived by investors and allocators who are allocating capital into alternative investments.
Note: AUM figures are based on fee-paying AUM where applicable.
Who is hiring?
In order for alts to continue to go mainstream, we need the best talent to go into the space. Here are some openings at private markets firms. If you’d like to connect with any of these teams, let me know, and I’m happy to facilitate an introduction if appropriate. If you’re a company or fund in private markets, feel free to reach out to share a job description you’d like to be listed here to highlight for the Alt Goes Mainstream community.
🔍 Blackstone (Alternative asset manager) - Blackstone Private Wealth - Product Specialist, Vice President (Real Assets). Click here to learn more.
🔍 KKR (Alternative asset manager) - Head of AI Product Management. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Apollo Global Management (Alternative asset manager) - Market Intelligence Director. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ares (Alternative asset manager) - Vice President, Product Management & Client Services, Wealth Management Solutions, APAC. Click here to learn more.
🔍 EQT Group (Alternative asset manager) - Head of Social Media. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Blue Owl (Alternative asset manager) - Market Leader, Private Wealth, Senior Associate. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Franklin Templeton (Asset manager) - Portfolio Manager, Private Markets. Click here to learn more.
🔍 iCapital (Private markets infrastructure investment platform) - Private Markets, Due Diligence Manager - Senior Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Alternative asset manager) - Asset and Wealth Management, Client Solutions Group, Retail Alternatives Specialist, New York - Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Partners Group (Alternative asset manager) - Investment Leader, Private Equity, Services vertical. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ultimus Fund Solutions (Fund administrator) - SVP, Business Development. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Allocate (Private markets infrastructure investment platform) - Managing Director / Senior Director, Investments & Research. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Dynasty Financial Partners (Wealth management platform) - Senior Product Manager - Wealth Technology. Click here to learn more.
🔍 MSCI (Data services) - Product Marketing Specialist - Private Asset GPs. Click here to learn more.
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The latest on Alt Goes Mainstream
Recent podcast or video episodes and blog posts on Alt Goes Mainstream:
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📝 Read about a year in the book of alts — a compilation of the 1,000+ pages written in weekly newsletters on Alt Goes Mainstream in 2024. Read here.
📝 Read about the launch of the AGM Studio, a collaboration between Alt Goes Mainstream and Broadhaven Ventures to incubate, invest in, and help scale companies and funds in private markets. Read here.
🎙 Hear Balderton Capital General Partner and former Goldman Sachs Partner Rana Yared discuss why Europe can build global companies out of the region. Listen here.
🎥 Watch Stepstone Private Wealth CEO Bob Long discuss StepStone Private Wealth’s edge and nuances with their evergreen structures in the first episode of “What’s Your Edge.” Watch here.
🎥 Watch Co-Founder & Managing Partner of Cantilever Group and former Goldman Sachs and Broadhaven Capital Partners Partner Todd Owens discuss the middle market opportunity in GP stakes investing. Watch here.
🎙 Hear me discuss why and how alts are going mainstream on The Compound’s Animal Spirits podcast with Ritholtz Wealth’s Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Manulife’s Global Head of Private Markets Anne Valentine Andrews share how to approach building a private markets investment platform at an industry behemoth and the merits of infrastructure investing. Listen here.
🎥 Watch Lawrence Calcano, Chairman & CEO at iCapital, on the AGM podcast discuss driving efficiency across the entire value chain to transform private markets. Watch here.
🎙 Hear VC legend New Enterprise Associates’ Chairman Emeritus and Former Managing General Partner Peter Barris discuss how he transitioned from operator to VC and transformed NEA into a venture juggernaut in the process. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Blue Owl’s Global Private Wealth President & CEO Sean Connor share insights and lessons learned from working with the wealth channel. Listen here.
📝 Read about the evolution of GP stakes, why alternative asset management business models are better than SaaS, and our partnership with Todd Owens and David Ballard at Cantilever, a mid-market GP stakes firm anchored by BTG Pactual. Read here.
🎙 Hear how Chris Long, Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder of Palmer Square Capital Management has built a $29B credit investment firm and a winning NWSL soccer franchise, the KC Current. Listen here.
🎙 Hear stories from building market-defining companies Blackstone, Airbnb, and private markets from Laurence Tosi, former CFO of Blackstone and Airbnb and Managing Partner & Founder of $7.6B investment firm WestCap. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Chris Ailman, the CIO of $307B CalSTRS, discuss how he manages a portfolio with ~40% exposure to private markets. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Blackstone CTO John Stecher discuss how technology is transforming private markets. Listen here.
🎙 Hear investing legends John Burbank and Ken Wallace of Nimble Partners provide a masterclass on investing with both a macro and VC lens. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Robert Picard, Head of Alternatives at $117B AUM Hightower, discusses how they approach alternative investments. Listen here.
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Special thanks to Ryan McCormack, Nick Owens, and Michael Rutter for their contributions to the AGM Index section of the newsletter.
Thoughtful synthesis of how risk perception varies across diffrent investor types and time horizons. Armen's framing that you don't have to reach for risk to generate the right return is especially powerful when paired with Marc Rowan's point about rethinking what "safe" even means in today's market structure. The S&P concentration data makes the case that portfollio construction can't rely on old assumptions about diversification anymore.