AGM Alts Weekly | 8.2.26: From "soft" to "hard"
AGM Alts Weekly #166: Making private markets more public, every week.
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Good evening from London. I just returned from a weekend in Adare, Ireland, for the beautiful wedding of two good friends.
I’m a terrible golfer, but for those who like golf, you might want to check out Adare Manor, where next year’s Ryder Cup will be played. It looked like a great course. But then again, all golf courses look green, so what do I know?
Green … that’s a good transition to this week’s topic. Sometimes people say all money is green, but that may no longer be the case when it comes to investing in “hard” industries.
A changing world means investors must adapt to a different game on the field.
Perhaps evidence that there’s a new game on the field is no more apparent than where investors are directing their capital.
Ruulke Bagijn, Partner and Global Head of Carlyle AlpInvest, Dan Murphy, MD, and Head of Portfolio Allocation, and Hannah Khizgilov, Principal, Global Research & Investment Strategy, penned interesting and informative views on where private markets could be heading next in their Carlyle AlpInvest Q3 Global Markets Quarterly “Signal vs. Noise.”
They wrote that conviction is concentrating in what they call the “traditional economy - energy, industrial capacity, aerospace, defense, and the infrastructure needed to support AI.”
One of the clearest shifts we're observing at Carlyle AlpInvest is the continued rotation away from software and toward what we might call the traditional economy – energy, industrial capacity, aerospace, defense, and the infrastructure needed to support AI are attracting an increasing share of private market capital.
In buyouts, these "hard" industries represented nearly half of deal volume during the first half of 2026, compared with roughly one-quarter throughout 2025.
Carlyle’s Bagijn, Murphy, and Khizgilov posited that this shift represents a trend with staying power. Their punchline? Investors are signaling their views on where they believe long-term value creation will reside by the direction of their capital allocation flows.
From “soft”(ware) to “hard”(ware)
Carlyle’s report noted that investors appear concerned about the future of software.
Not only did SaaS stocks experience a sharp decline in the first half of 2026, but secondary prices for software loans fell from 92 cents on the dollar at the beginning of 2026 to around 86 cents today, according to Carlyle. Direct lenders also appear to be pulling back from financing software buyouts, with software’s share of new leveraged buyout financing declining from 35% last year to just 14% year to date.
A chart from Ribbit Capital’s “Ribbit Pulse” (May 2026) highlights just how hard public software companies that aren’t capturing AI demand have been hit by a valuation downdraft: 86% of public software companies are now trading below a 10x NTM gross profit multiple.
While software companies have been negatively impacted by the rapid growth of AI, companies in “hard” industries have been the recipients of capital flows.
The growth of AI has led to an explosion in financing the AI capex cycle. And the capex cycle may even be bigger than expected.
It’s not just the AI capex cycle that’s driving investment, but also the near-insatiable need for power.
As the chart above from Ribbit illustrates, power consumption is projected to increase meaningfully in the coming years. Further, there’s a “major power gap” in the coming years that requires financing solutions that reduce the “time to power.”
This data shouldn’t come as a surprise to investors following the trends here.
Lowercarbon Capital’s Chris Sacca said in November 2025 that “There's no doubt that AI is the biggest impact” on energy demand globally.
The ripple effects of financing the current megatrends are far-reaching.
Brookfield, one of the largest owner-operators of real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power assets globally, is investing across a trio of “powerful forces shaping the investment landscape: digitalization, decarbonization, and deglobalization.”
Brookfield Corporation noted in its Q1 letter to shareholders that “these themes are even more prominent today than when [they] started speaking about them.”
These words perhaps ring truer, even more so, after this week’s news of Westinghouse’s IPO filing.
This week, Westinghouse Electric, the US nuclear reactor and design firm that is a Brookfield portfolio company, confidentially filed for an IPO. This milestone comes on the heels of an October 2025 announcement in which the US government struck an $80B deal to build a fleet of nuclear reactors produced by Westinghouse, as part of the US government’s push to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050.
This milestone marks quite a comeback story for Westinghouse, which just nine years ago filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy due to cost overruns at its nuclear power stations in Georgia and South Carolina.
Investing in “hard” industries can be hard(er)
Investing in “hard” industries can indeed be hard, particularly in an era where operational value creation matters. That’s something that Brookfield Private Equity CEO Anuj Ranjan noted in our recent Alt Goes Mainstream podcast, calling this the “roll up your sleeves era of private equity.”
This sentiment was echoed by Anuj’s colleague, David Nowak, President of Brookfield’s Private Equity Group, on our podcast, where he said the firm looks to “find great businesses that are misunderstood that we think we can operate better.”
David’s mantra certainly appears to be what happened with Brookfield’s investment in Westinghouse.
A focus on “hard” industries also means that a different type of investor will succeed in this new era of investing.
Brookfield characterizes this skillset as having “the scale and operating capabilities” to develop new forms of infrastructure.
Investors now must possess the platform or connectivity to the appropriate capital sources to be a capital solutions provider across equity, credit, infrastructure, and real estate.
Not all investors may have the platform to be a solutions provider across asset classes, but firms that do possess those capabilities have the in-built advantage of data, information, and scale that will enable them to succeed in this new world of investing.
Built different
A new era of investing means investment firms may need to reorient how they build their platforms to become the partner of choice for companies building in hard industries.
“Hard” companies often require more capital up front for capex, sometimes have a longer timeline to reach revenue, and need to weather supply chains. These features can mean that a “hard” company will benefit from a multi-stage capital partner.
evroc, which is building Europe’s first sovereign hyperscale cloud, is one such example.
Founded in 2022, the company raised a seed round from EQT Ventures and Norrsken VC. In 2023, evroc announced it aimed to raise €3B within two years to build two hyperscale data centers in Europe.
While I don’t know the specifics of the relationship between EQT and evroc, in EQT, evroc found a partner that could invest early into the company at the seed stage, like a venture investor. EQT has scaled growth, private equity, and infrastructure investment platforms that comprise a large part of its overall AUM. Private Capital and Infrastructure represent the lion’s share of EQT’s €291B AUM, as the chart below from its Half Year Report illustrates.
EQT, if it chooses, has the ability to finance the company’s growth via its larger growth fund or its private equity fund if there’s a desire to deploy capital at scale.
Very few investment firms are built to scale capital needs in lockstep with a company’s growth. Yes, the innovation that’s occurred with SPV infrastructure does make it possible for smaller funds to deploy larger quantums of capital into their most promising investments at growth stage. Still, it’s easier for larger funds that possess big pools of discretionary capital to move quickly and put a lot of capital to work into companies that need to, say, finance the buildout of a data center.
A firm like EQT could even support a company like evroc in ways beyond equity. Its Infrastructure business could finance the buildout of data centers, if it so chooses.
The trend of an investment firm as a one-stop-shop solution isn’t just limited to its relationship with LPs. Since many companies want fewer financing partners who can do more, rather than more investors, the ability to serve as a capital provider throughout a company’s growth in multiple ways can be appealing to companies and teams.
We have seen this trend unfold across our own cross-section of investments in companies and funds. We have invested in some of these trends directly by investing in companies like Cloover, which has needed access to debt capital as it has rapidly scaled its clean energy financing solutions in Europe. We have also partnered with some of our fund managers, such as Lowercarbon, Boost VC, InterAlpen, Nimble Partners, and Swift Ventures, to co-invest in the likes of Neura Robotics, Radiant Nuclear, Panthalassa, Fuse Energy, Umbra Space, and GrayMatter Robotics, where we’ve seen these companies require both a meaningful amount of capital and a velocity of fundraising rounds relatively early on in their development because they require lots of capital in various forms in order to solve big problems.
These investments have made me look at GPs through a different lens than before. Today’s investing in “hard” industries requires a different set of skills and capabilities, forcing LPs to ask different questions of their GPs in order to discern a firm’s competitive edge:
Where does the scale of the platform provide a demonstrable and durable advantage?
Does the GP have a deep understanding of the nuances of geopolitics and macro?
What enables an asset manager to win a deal in a category that requires different skill sets than those required for investing in software?
What does a company need from its investor partner that’s different from in the past?
Solving the “hard” problems in “hard” industries
What does this mean for the future of asset management?
Companies across AI, energy, power, fusion, space, and robotics can go from a venture-like moonshot bet to nine or ten figures of revenue and meaningful EBITDA in a short span of time. In some cases, the time period between a venture investment and a private equity investment has compressed to just a few years.
Venture might need to look more like private equity if these investors want to scale with companies that could be outsized winners.
Private equity might need to look more like venture if they want to capture upside early enough, but also be able to play a meaningful role in financing a company’s profitable growth at scale if the velocity of funding rounds is compressed.
I wonder if we’ll see PE firms add venture capabilities to serve these companies building in “hard” industries.
And I wonder if we’ll see VC firms look to expand into more private equity-style investing in some respects, as we’ve seen with General Catalyst’s Health Assurance Transformation Company (HATCo) or Thrive Holdings’ permanent capital vehicle. Some VC platforms are looking to do PE-style rollups by leveraging AI and deploying it across service companies they own through holding company vehicles.
This trend might also mean the continued growth of the GP stakes industry, as investment platforms across PE and VC look inward at their own capabilities and realize that they need to fund the future growth of their platform by building or buying capabilities that enable them to expand their offerings to companies as a financing provider across asset classes.
Either way, investing has never been as “hard” as it is today. But those investors who can solve the “hard” problems in “hard” industries stand to be rewarded quite handsomely. They will just need the capital, scale, and expertise to do it.
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The inaugural AGM RIA Field Trip took place on May 19–20 in New York City. We had an exceptional group of RIAs and GPs joining for a highly curated, uniquely structured, exciting 2-day program.
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Who is hiring?
In order for alts to continue to go mainstream, we need the best talent to go into the space. Here are some openings at private markets firms. If you’d like to connect with any of these teams, let me know, and I’m happy to facilitate an introduction if appropriate. If you’re a company or fund in private markets, feel free to reach out to share a job description you’d like to be listed here to highlight for the Alt Goes Mainstream community.
🔍 Blackstone (Alternative asset manager) - Blackstone Private Wealth - Product Specialist, Vice President (Real Assets). Click here to learn more.
🔍 Carlyle (Alternative asset manager) - Managing Director, Client Relationship Manager (NYC Wires), Global Wealth. Click here to learn more.
🔍 EQT (Alternative asset manager) - Communications Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Blue Owl (Alternative asset manager) - Private Wealth, Portfolio Strategist Real Assets, Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Franklin Templeton (Asset manager) - Portfolio Manager, Private Markets. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Alternative asset manager) - Asset & Wealth Management, Client Solutions Group, Wealth Alternatives Specialist, New York - Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Vista (Alternative asset manager) - Analyst, Private Wealth Solutions. Click here to learn more.
🔍 HarbourVest (Alternative asset manager) - Senior Associate, Global Private Wealth Operations. Click here to learn more.
🔍 iCapital (Private markets infrastructure investment platform) - Chief Risk Officer, Managing Director. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ultimus Fund Solutions (Fund administrator) - VP - Fund Accounting. Click here to learn more.
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🎥 Watch Hamilton Lane Managing Director, Co-Head US Private Wealth Solutions Stephanie Davis and iCapital Co-Founder & Managing Partner Nick Veronis discuss the evolution of evergreen funds on the third episode of the Investing with an Evergreen Lens Series. Watch here.
🎥 Watch KKR Managing Director, Head of Americas, Global Wealth Solutions (GWS) Doug Krupa and iCapital Co-Founder & Managing Partner Nick Veronis discuss the evolution of evergreen funds on the second episode of the Investing with an Evergreen Lens Series. Watch here.
🎥 Watch Vista Equity Partners Managing Director, Global Head of Private Wealth Solutions Dan Parant and iCapital Co-Founder & Managing Partner Nick Veronis discuss the evolution of evergreen funds on the first episode of the Investing with an Evergreen Lens Series. Watch here.
📝 Read about a year in the book of alts — a compilation of the 1,000+ pages written in weekly newsletters on Alt Goes Mainstream in 2024. Read here.
📝 Read about the launch of the AGM Studio, a collaboration between Alt Goes Mainstream and Broadhaven Ventures to incubate, invest in, and help scale companies and funds in private markets. Read here.
🎥 Watch Stepstone Private Wealth CEO Bob Long discuss StepStone Private Wealth’s edge and nuances with their evergreen structures in the first episode of “What’s Your Edge.” Watch here.
🎥 Watch Co-Founder & Managing Partner of Cantilever Group and former Goldman Sachs and Broadhaven Capital Partners Partner Todd Owens discuss the middle market opportunity in GP stakes investing. Watch here.
🎙 Hear me discuss why and how alts are going mainstream on The Compound’s Animal Spirits podcast with Ritholtz Wealth’s Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson. Listen here.
📝 Read about the evolution of GP stakes, why alternative asset management business models are better than SaaS, and our partnership with Todd Owens and David Ballard at Cantilever, a mid-market GP stakes firm anchored by BTG Pactual. Read here.
🎙 Hear how Chris Long, Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder of Palmer Square Capital Management has built a $29B credit investment firm and a winning NWSL soccer franchise, the KC Current. Listen here.
🎙 Hear stories from building market-defining companies Blackstone, Airbnb, and private markets from Laurence Tosi, former CFO of Blackstone and Airbnb and Managing Partner & Founder of $7.6B investment firm WestCap. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Chris Ailman, the CIO of $307B CalSTRS, discuss how he manages a portfolio with ~40% exposure to private markets. Listen here.
🎙 Hear Blackstone CTO John Stecher discuss how technology is transforming private markets. Listen here.
🎙 Hear investing legends John Burbank and Ken Wallace of Nimble Partners provide a masterclass on investing with both a macro and VC lens. Listen here.

Thank you for reading. If you like the Alts Weekly, please share it with your friends, colleagues, and anyone interested in private markets.
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If you have any suggestions, would like me to feature an article, research, or would like to recommend a guest or topic for the Alt Goes Mainstream podcast, reach out! I’d love to include it in my next post or on a future podcast.
Special thanks to Cameron Molnar, Ryan McCormack, Nick Owens, Michael Rutter for their contributions to the AGM Index section of the newsletter.
Disclaimer: Alt Goes Mainstream is an independent newsletter focused on the private markets industry. It is published for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, or any other form of professional advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment product. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of any affiliated organization, employer, or third party. Some companies, individuals, or organizations featured or mentioned in this newsletter may be current or past sponsors of Alt Goes Mainstream. Sponsorship does not influence editorial coverage, but readers should be aware that a relationship might exist. The author may hold direct or indirect investments in companies, funds, or other entities mentioned in this newsletter.







