AGM Alts Weekly | 9.28.25: A "View from the Top"
AGM Alts Weekly #122: Making private markets more public, every week.
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Good morning from Washington, DC.
When the industry’s largest alternative asset manager speaks, it’s worth listening.
Earlier this week, Blackstone President Jon Gray didn’t run. He spoke. Though he did contemplate speaking about his running videos.
Gray presented to 100 CIOs responsible for $24T of AUM at Blackstone’s 2025 CIO Symposium.
In his presentation, titled “View from the Top,” Gray shared the trends and themes that have captured Blackstone’s focus.
Let’s turn the page on some of the themes from his presentation.
The starting point
Gray started by unpacking Blackstone’s DNA. He noted that “ultimately our business is about our people — and what connects them is the culture of this firm.”
Investment culture is a critical input that shapes the all-important output in the industry: investment returns.
The firm’s North Star? A “relentless focus on returns.”
Where, in part, does Blackstone believe it derives its edge? Gray said that their “greatest advantage comes from scale.”
The rise of the platform business in alternative asset management is a theme that is a feature of the current market structure. This industry evolution is in part due to the evolving nature of both the business of asset management and a convergence of public and private markets. It’s also a result of the quantum of capital required to finance certain types of companies and trends that require private investment.
Scale matters — particularly when firms are investing in megatrends such as AI, digitalization, and electrification.
Blackstone highlights this feature of the firm’s investment philosophy in a January 2025 whitepaper, stating that “the power of scale in identifying trends … provides unparalleled insight into emerging trends and patterns.”
In an investment climate where megatrends like AI are requiring trillions of dollars invested in what Gray refers to as the “picks and shovels,” such as chips, data centers, and power at massive scale, a massive amount of capital is required.
A datapoint from Blackstone’s “Pattern Recognition” insights notes that “the five largest hyperscalers are rapidly increasing their data center CapEx, expecting to invest $328B in 2025 (up 40% YoY) and $2T over the next five years” [note: the above chart is a slightly updated and revised version from Blackstone’s July 2025 “A Midyear Megatrends Update”].
Gray compared these figures of data center CapEx spend by the four largest hyperscalers to that of the combined budgets of NASA, the US Department of Energy, and the US Department of State, finding that this CapEx spend exceeds the budgets of those three government agencies and represents 1% of US GDP.
It’s not just data center CapEx spend that requires a significant amount of capital. It’s also other components that are required to power AI — power and compute.
Growth in electricity demand in the US is expected to increase by over 40% in the next 10 years, requiring major upgrades to the grid and utilities, as the below chart from Blackstone highlights.
“Pattern recognition”
Connecting dots requires the ability to recognize patterns.
Pattern recognition becomes easier when there’s more data to analyze.
Gray noted this feature as a benefit of Blackstone’s multi-strategy platform: “If you think about investing as pattern recognition, connecting dots, we get more dots than anybody — on inflation, the economy, megatrends driving the future … and [we can decide] how to best deploy capital.”
Scale begets insight.
Blackstone is an investment firm with intelligence and data at its core.
The 260 portfolio companies, 12,700 real estate assets, and 4,900 corporate borrowers that comprise Blackstone’s investment exposure offer up insights that enable the firm to “connect [the] dots … [on] where to deploy capital.”
Another benefit of scale? Blackstone can complete large transactions — and do so without the need to syndicate deals to other sponsors. They can execute deals unilaterally between their funds and co-investments. Gray’s reference to the size and scale of Blackstone’s co-investment program — $11B of institutional co-invest generated in 2024 and a threefold increase in co-investment opportunities generated for institutional LPs in 1H’25 versus 1H’24 — was also notable since it comes at a time where many LPs want to do more with less GP relationships.
The outlook for alternatives
Private markets have experienced marked growth — and alternative asset managers have been running — perhaps even sprinting (Jon, how fast is your mile time these days?) — to keep up with the industry’s ascent.
Gray highlighted just how much the industry has grown in the past 15 years, with the industry’s AUM experiencing a fourfold increase from $3T AUM in 2010 to $13T in 2025.
Why do private markets continue to grow?
“It’s all about returns,” according to Gray.
Gray pointed to the outperformance by US endowments and foundations that have more exposure to private markets. E&Fs that had an allocation greater than 30% to private investments outperformed E&Fs that had a sub-10% allocation to private investments by 2.7%.
It’s also about market opportunity.
Gray discussed the opportunity in private credit as that market structure continues to evolve.
The characterization of private credit as “farm to table” by Gray illuminates the growing trend of borrowers and lenders removing the middleman — the banks — and going direct, which can compress fees in the process. Gray noted that Blackstone has generated 200 bps of incremental spread in private investment grade credit for investors.
Private credit’s large investable universe also represents a major opportunity to allocate capital at scale.
Gray discussed the breadth and depth of the $30T opportunity in asset-backed credit illustrated in the picture below.
So, is private credit becoming too big — and too risky?
Gray argues that while private credit is growing, a $2T private credit market, and a $13T market for alternatives broadly, pales in comparison to what Blackstone calls a $300T market across global equities, corporate, asset backed, and mortgage credit, real estate, and infrastructure.
And, if private credit is still a relatively small portion of the investment universe, perhaps it does not pose systemic risk at this point, as a Letter to the FT by Jiri Krol, Global Head of the Alternative Credit Council noted.
A big fish in a big pond
So, where will the capital come from to meet the expanding surface area of private markets?
Well, some of that capital has come from the wealth channel — and, with the average investor in the wealth channel at a sub-3% allocation to private markets, that segment of the LP market will continue to experience meaningful growth, particularly as more segments of the wealth channel are able to access private markets.
Blackstone’s prolific private wealth business is a microcosm of this trend. The firm’s Private Wealth Solutions business, which is “on a mission to deliver more of Blackstone to more investors,” according to Blackstone’s Global Head of Private Wealth Joan Solotar, has grown to $279B in AUM.
This figure accounts for almost 1/4th of Blackstone’s $1.21T in total assets under management, which is highlighted in the chart below from Blackstone’s Q2 2025 earnings presentation.
It’s also worth noting that Blackstone’s fee-earning perpetual capital AUM topped $415B, representing 47% of all fee-earning AUM.
Blackstone’s perpetual capital strategies have grown to meaningful scale, the most notable amongst them being BREIT ($53B AUM), BCRED ($83B), Blackstone Infrastructure Partners ($51B), and BXPE ($12.5B).
As big as Blackstone is, its market opportunity is even bigger.
Blackstone’s footprint with evergreen or perpetual capital strategies is sizable — without the inclusion of US retirement assets.
Gray pointed out how defined contribution plans, like defined benefit plans, represent $12T of AUM. Yet, 1% of DC plans are allocated to private markets, while 33% of the $12T in DB plans have been allocated to private markets.
Even Blackstone’s closed-end fund structures have witnessed an evolution in the sources of capital that have contributed to the firm’s funds over time, as the below chart from Gray’s presentation illustrates.
So, what pond is Blackstone fishing in to match capital with opportunity?
Gray then covers areas where Blackstone sees compelling investment opportunities.
Good places to invest?
Gray believes the time is now (and perhaps the past year or two) for commercial real estate.
He points to a cyclical recovery in the CRE market, noting that assets have been repriced.
The secondaries market is also a market with structural dynamics that make it an opportunity for investors with the capital to provide solutions to both LPs and GPs at scale.
Yet, despite the market growth, Gray points out that the $200B secondary market volume represents just 1.5% of total private markets AUM. This datapoint leads Gray to believe that discounts will continue to persist in the secondaries market.
Gray also discusses India’s fast-growing economy as something that has caught Blackstone’s eye. India’s GDP growth has dwarfed many other major economies in recent years — and Blackstone sees India as a place where “demographic and economic factors create opportunity.”
The headwinds
Private markets are far from perfect — they are not without risks.
Gray cites five major headwinds that Blackstone is monitoring as they continue to invest in private markets.
AI valuations: Gray notes that speculative data center builds could propel valuations to irrational levels, so Blackstone is keeping an eye out for excess that could lead to a bubble in AI.
Excessive government debt: With some of the major economies running 4-6% government deficits, could this lead to higher long end rates and lower multiples?
Challenging European growth and immigration: Gray cites some headwinds facing Europe — “lower exposure to tech, more regulatory issues, immigration challenges, the possibility of far left or far right governments that could impact Europe.”
US / China tensions: Can the two biggest economies in the world co-exist?
Underestimating technological disruption: “The thing that keeps them up at night the most,” Gray said. “We’ve now added to our investment committee memos that in the first two pages of the memo, you’ve got to have a paragraph on the AI risk of this investment,” he added.
Gray concluded his presentation with a good reminder for everyone — both GPs and LPs — participating in private markets: “the North Star is … about delivering great returns.”
AGM Index
AGM has created an Index to track the leading publicly traded alternative asset managers.
Some of the industry’s largest alternative asset managers are publicly traded — and their net inflows can serve as a window into how private markets are being perceived by investors and allocators who are allocating capital into alternative investments.
Note: AUM figures are based on fee-paying AUM where applicable.
Chart of the Week
Brought to you by:
Do loan valuations signal distress?
Private credit borrowers are feeling the squeeze. Distress rates, measured by write-downs of at least 20%, have more than tripled since early 2022.
These write-downs point to an increased risk of restructuring or default — most notably in mezzanine debt, where 12% of loans now face valuations marked 50% or lower.
Stay ahead of the latest in private markets with our Charting Private Assets series.
Disclaimer
(c) 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Any use of this chart, data or any information contained in this section are also subject to the disclaimer located at: https://www.msci.com/legal/notice-and-disclaimer, which may be updated by MSCI Inc. from time to time.
AGM News of the Week
Articles we are reading
📝 Amundi Sees Private, Public Markets Converge in Retail Cash Race | Kat Hidalgo, Francesca Veronesi, Kriti Gupta, Bloomberg
💡Bloomberg’s Kat Hidalgo, Francesca Veronesi, and Kriti Gupta cover the convergence of public and private at IPEM’s conference in Paris this past week. Bloomberg noted comments from Amundi’s CEO Valerie Baudson, who said that their “clients want diversification in private markets.” The CEO of the €2.3T AUM asset manager also noted that public and private will need to converge when it comes to clients, asset managers, and investment products. Amundi has made a concerted push to grow its footprint in private markets. Last year, the firm purchased Swiss asset manager Alpha Associates for €350M.
KKR’s Co-Head of European Private Equity Philipp Freise said that “Democratizing the industry is a trend right now … we are in the early innings of it but it will be a megatrend for the next 10 years for sure.” Part of the reason for individual investors’ growing interest in private markets? Freise observed the need to help provide the “kind of saving pot” that gives people “confidence in their retirement and retirement savings” in an aging society.
Apollo estimates that there’s a $15T market opportunity across household assets across personal investments, savings, and cash in Europe and the Middle East to invest in private markets, part of which could be allocated to private credit.
A PitchBook chart from its H1 2025 Global Private Debt Report highlights the growing presence of wealth channel capital investing in private credit.
Other areas that leadership from some of the industry’s largest asset managers spoke about included secondaries, as Amundi’s Baudson noted, and the investment opportunity around AI.
Brookfield Asset Management’s Head of Europe and Global Head of AI Infrastructure Sikander Rashid said that “Trillions in capital to upgrade infrastructure and build new infrastructure at a time when debt-to-GDP ratios in Europe are at all-time highs.” He said that there’s an attractive opportunity for private capital to help fill the gap given how much capital is required to finance the buildout of AI infrastructure.
💸 AGM’s 2/20: Comments by some of the industry’s largest asset managers highlight the convergence of public and private. Asset managers, both traditional and alternative, understand that they need to continue to find ways to provide solutions to clients. That means building and delivering solutions that include private markets exposure. The panel at IPEM discussed some of the megatrends that need to be financed, such as AI, digitalization, and infrastructure. Some of the capital required to finance these trends and markets will come from private markets; so, unless investors are able to access private markets they won’t be able to invest in large and growing portions of the investable universe.
Another panel at IPEM on private credit highlighted that investors are going private. Direct lending has been a feature of the private credit market, in part because companies have chosen to have direct relationships with their lenders. This trend has been particularly relevant in the data center space. Meta financed the buildout of a data center in Louisiana with a $29B financing package from PIMCO and Blue Owl.
One important feature of much of the financing structures happening in private credit? The deals are providing credit to investment-grade borrowers.
That was a topic that I discussed with a leading infrastructure investor in a recent podcast. Yes, there is talk of loosening underwriting standards in the credit space. And yes, as more capital comes into private credit the competition for deals intensifies, which could impact credit investors’ underwriting standards. But the borrowers, particularly in the financing of data centers, are hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, which are investment-grade credits. It’s prudent to be skeptical anytime a market experiences explosive growth and large flows of capital; it’s also important to examine all angles of this growing market.
Who is hiring?
In order for alts to continue to go mainstream, we need the best talent to go into the space. Here are some openings at private markets firms. If you’d like to connect with any of these teams, let me know, and I’m happy to facilitate an introduction if appropriate. If you’re a company or fund in private markets, feel free to reach out to share a job description you’d like to be listed here to highlight for the Alt Goes Mainstream community.
🔍 Blackstone (Alternative asset manager) - Private Wealth Solutions - Content Marketing, Vice President - Tokyo. Click here to learn more.
🔍 KKR (Alternative asset manager) - Head of AI Product Management. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Apollo Global Management (Alternative asset manager) - Managing Director, Head of Investment Grade Research. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ares (Alternative asset manager) - Vice President, Product Management & Client Services, Wealth Management Solutions, APAC. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Blue Owl (Alternative asset manager) - Private Wealth, International Client Solutions, Vice President / Principal - London. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Franklin Templeton (Asset manager) - Head of Marketing - France, Benelux, and the Nordics. Click here to learn more.
🔍 iCapital (Private markets infrastructure investment platform) - RIA, Family Office Business Development - Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Alternative asset manager) - Asset and Wealth Management, Client Solutions Group, Retail Alternatives Specialist, New York - Vice President. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Partners Group (Alternative asset manager) - Investment Leader, Private Equity, Services vertical. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Ultimus Fund Solutions (Fund administrator) - SVP, Business Development. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Cerity Partners (Wealth management platform) - Head of Talent, Principal. Click here to learn more.
🔍 JPMorgan Chase (Asset manager) - Asset Management - Private Equity Associate - Program Associate. Click here to learn more.
🔍 Allocate (Private markets infrastructure investment platform) - Managing Director / Senior Director, Investments & Research. Click here to learn more.
🔍 SageSpring Wealth Partners (Wealth manager) - Team Financial Advisor. Click here to learn more.
🔍 MSCI (Data services) - Vice President, Program Management - Private Assets. Click here to learn more.
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Fill out this form using the link below to explore partnership opportunities.
The latest on Alt Goes Mainstream
Recent podcast or video episodes and blog posts on Alt Goes Mainstream:
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🎙 Hear Blackstone CTO John Stecher discuss how technology is transforming private markets. Listen here.
🎙 Hear investing legends John Burbank and Ken Wallace of Nimble Partners provide a masterclass on investing with both a macro and VC lens. Listen here.
📝 Read how 73 Strings CEO & Co-Founder Yann Magnan and team are leveraging AI to build a modern and holistic monitoring and valuation platform for private markets in The AGM Q&A. Read here.
🎙 Hear Robert Picard, Head of Alternatives at $117B AUM Hightower, discusses how they approach alternative investments. Listen here.
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Special thanks to Ryan McCormack, Nick Owens, and Michael Rutter for their contributions to the AGM Index section of the newsletter.
Great breakdown and noticeable insight on where we should be thinking about capital allocation and what’s going on today!