Worth pushing the bank retrenchment angle harder. If regulatory pressure on CRE exposure is permanent (Basel III endgame, concentration limits), banks don't eventually come back. What looks like cyclical dislocation is actually a one-way transfer of an entire asset class to non-bank balance sheets. Comparato's emphasis on origination over buying hints at this: you don't build origination infrastructure for a timing trade. The gap between "good time to deploy capital" and "we are becoming the new bank for commercial real estate" is enormous, and the investment horizon, team structure, and risk management look completely different depending on which one you believe.
Worth pushing the bank retrenchment angle harder. If regulatory pressure on CRE exposure is permanent (Basel III endgame, concentration limits), banks don't eventually come back. What looks like cyclical dislocation is actually a one-way transfer of an entire asset class to non-bank balance sheets. Comparato's emphasis on origination over buying hints at this: you don't build origination infrastructure for a timing trade. The gap between "good time to deploy capital" and "we are becoming the new bank for commercial real estate" is enormous, and the investment horizon, team structure, and risk management look completely different depending on which one you believe.